Bitcoin Near a Turning Point? On-Chain Signals Say Bottom Isn’t In Yet

TLDR

• Bitcoin shows stress signals, but data says a true bottom has not formed yet
  
  

• On-chain metrics warn Bitcoin correction may not be over
  
  

• Bitcoin stuck between rebound hopes and deeper reset risk
  
  

• Macro pressure keeps Bitcoin bottom uncertain despite panic signals
  
  

• Bitcoin metrics flash warning as capitulation still fails to appear

Bitcoin trades at a critical level as on-chain metrics signal stress without confirming a lasting bottom. Market data still places Bitcoin between a correction and deeper reset. Therefore, analysts say macro pressure and weak liquidity continue to shape short-term direction.

On-chain metrics show stress without full capitulation

CryptoQuant data shows long-term holder margins shrinking, and conditions resemble a mid-cycle correction rather than a historic reset. However, losses remain far from levels seen during prior bear market floors. Consequently, analysts say Bitcoin has not reached classic capitulation territory.

Long-term holders previously carried profits above 140%, yet margins now hover near breakeven. Still, historical bottoms formed when holders absorbed losses between 30% and 40%. Therefore, the current structure suggests pressure continues but lacks final surrender signals.

The MVRV Z-score also remains above deeply oversold territory that marked earlier cycle lows. Meanwhile, NUPL readings sit near neutral instead of heavy unrealized losses. As a result, on-chain structure points to tension but not exhaustion.

Macro pressure adds uncertainty to price outlook

Macroeconomic forces continue to influence Bitcoin and broader risk markets during a period of tight liquidity. A hotter labor report strengthened expectations of restrictive monetary policy. Consequently, traders now weigh upcoming inflation data as a key catalyst.

Large financial institutions recently projected further downside if macro conditions worsen. Forecasts suggest Bitcoin could test levels between $50,000 and $58,000 during renewed selling. Therefore, price action remains tied to external economic signals.

A surprise rise in inflation would reinforce expectations of higher rates for longer. That scenario would pressure equities, and digital assets would likely follow. Thus, Bitcoin remains sensitive to policy outlook and global liquidity.

Panic readings contrast with structural resilience

Sentiment indicators show extreme fear, and panic levels recently reached rare historical zones. However, some analysts interpret that fear as a sign of seller fatigue. Therefore, emotional exhaustion could stabilize short-term volatility.

Market participants compare the downturn to earlier cycles but highlight important differences. Unlike industry-driven crashes, this decline stems from macro tightening and capital scarcity. Consequently, structural damage appears limited despite sharp price swings.

Bitcoin operates in one of the most complex macro climates in recent years. Yet, analysts argue the network remains fundamentally intact despite turbulence. As a result, the debate continues between reset risk and recovery potential.