Itaú BBA Warns: Stablecoins Could Become a Real Macroeconomic Risk by 2026

Brazil’s biggest investment bank is sounding the alarm.
According to Livecoins, a senior Itaú BBA executive has projected that stablecoins may represent a serious macroeconomic risk by 2026, as their rapid adoption and liquidity dominance begin to rival traditional fiat-based systems.

The statement reflects growing concern among financial leaders that stablecoins — originally designed for payment stability — could destabilize national monetary control if left unchecked.

The Growing Scale of Stablecoins

In just a few years, stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and DAI have become the core liquidity layer of the crypto economy, facilitating cross-border settlements, DeFi operations, and remittances.

However, Itaú BBA analysts warn that their increasing integration with traditional markets may create new channels of systemic vulnerability:

• Massive capital outflows during market stress,
• Unregulated liquidity cycles across borders,
• Potential competition with central bank reserves.

“Stablecoins are evolving into a shadow monetary system — efficient but largely outside the reach of central banks,” the Itaú BBA executive said during a financial panel in São Paulo.

Macroeconomic Implications for 2026

By 2026, the report suggests, stablecoins could reach trillion-dollar market capitalization levels, influencing:

• Exchange rate dynamics,
• Interest rate transmission, and
• Liquidity distribution in emerging economies.

In nations like Brazil, India, and Indonesia, where digital payments adoption is skyrocketing, the uncontrolled circulation of USD-pegged coins could undermine local currency sovereignty.

“If citizens prefer dollar-pegged stablecoins for savings and payments, it dilutes monetary policy effectiveness,” the executive explained.

This echoes earlier warnings from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which labeled global stablecoins as a potential “contagion vector” during crises.

Banks Respond with Tokenized Alternatives

Interestingly, Itaú itself is investing in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) and digital BRL experiments, as part of Brazil’s Drex (Digital Real) initiative.
The bank’s executives argue that regulated tokenization, not unregulated stablecoins, is the sustainable path forward.

“We must create digital assets that reinforce, not replace, the national monetary system,” Itaú said.

This aligns with Brazil’s central bank strategy to blend innovation with control — creating programmable money frameworks that can coexist with decentralized ecosystems.

Outlook: Between Innovation and Instability

The warning from Itaú BBA underscores a core debate in global finance — how to embrace digital innovation without losing economic sovereignty.
If stablecoins continue their meteoric rise, regulators worldwide may accelerate the rollout of CBDCs and tokenized bank deposits to counterbalance their impact.

2026 could be the year stablecoins stop being “just a crypto tool” — and start shaping real-world macroeconomics.