On-Chain Signals Point to Bitcoin Turning Point Near $104K

Market Context

As global crypto markets digest macro uncertainty (interest-rate policy, ETF flows, etc.), on-chain data is increasingly being used to time entry points. Traditional technical analysis is being supplemented by holder behavior, realized cap trends and investor clustering metrics. In this context, signals around $104K are gaining attention as both psychological and technical anchors for BTC’s near-term direction.

Technical Details with Attribution

• BeInCrypto NL highlights that realized market capitalization — a metric that values coins at their last moved price rather than current price — is rising again, which historically preceded bull-cycle shifts. 
• The article points out a shifting threshold between long-term and short-term holder activity: long-term holders (those who’ve held BTC for extended periods) appear to be reducing accumulation, while newer or short-term holders are becoming more active. 
• One signal flagged is the behavior of chain-based holder thresholds peaking in ways that preceded past rally phases. 

Analyst Perspectives 

Some analysts view these on-chain indicators as supportive evidence that Bitcoin may be ripe for a renewed breakout above $100K. The specific target near $104K is seen as both a cautious upward step and a test of strength.

However, others emphasize that on-chain signals are rarely proof on their own: external conditions like regulatory developments, ETF-driven capital flows, or macro shifts (inflation / interest rates) could delay, weaken or invalidate the move. Thus while $104K looks plausible as a next pivot point, caution remains warranted.

Global Impact Note

If Bitcoin does begin shifting above $104K on the basis of on-chain momentum, it could renew confidence in data-driven trading signals worldwide. Traders and funds in Asia, Europe, and Latin America could re-weigh their exposure, using similar realized-cap and holder-threshold metrics to guide entry or exposure sizing.