Bernstein says 'Goldilocks scenario' is emerging for bitcoin miners amid 'Trump factor'

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said a “Goldilocks scenario” is emerging for bitcoin miners amid the “Trump factor” following a failed assassination attempt on the former U.S. President at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.

“The Goldilocks scenario for bitcoin mining is emerging: greater chances of pro-bitcoin political change, U.S emerging the dominant hub for bitcoin mining and latest generation mining chips, miners being valued for their lead in power interconnect, and miners emerging as strong partners for AI data centers,” Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

The price of bitcoin initially fell as the would-be assassin’s bullet pierced Trump’s right ear, and the presumptive Republican presidential nominee dropped to the ground. However, it rebounded strongly as the former President got to his feet, raising his fist in the air and shouting “fight.” 

Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket’s odds on the winner of the U.S. presidential election now show a 71% chance for Trump — up from about 60% around the time of the incident — with President Joe Biden’s chances of victory at just 18%.

The crypto market interprets a Trump win as "more positive" for crypto, given the Biden administration’s regulatory crackdown on the industry compared to pro-bitcoin statements by Trump in recent months, according to the analysts, including advocating for self-custody and bitcoin mining.

“Bitcoin’s price is positively correlated with the probability of a Trump Presidency and will remain sensitive to election updates,” the analysts said.