Stifel Warns of $38K Bitcoin: 43% Drop Ahead or Just Another Cycle?
Stifel projects Bitcoin could drop to $38K, signaling a 43% decline, as ETF outflows rise and tech correlation grows while bulls still target $200K.
Grace Amelia 
TLDR
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Stifel sees Bitcoin falling to $38K as ETF outflows mount
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Bitcoin risks 43% drop as tech correlation strengthens
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Bulls eye $200K while Stifel flags $38K downside
Bitcoin faces renewed downside risk after Stifel projected a drop to $38,000. Bitcoin trades near $65,000 as analysts debate its next cycle move. Stifel Warns of $38K Bitcoin: 43% Drop Ahead or Just Another Cycle? frames the latest market divide.
Bitcoin Trendline Signals Deeper Correction
Stifel Financial projects Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 based on long-term price structure. The firm based its view on a 15-year trendline tracking major crash lows. That model connects bear market bottoms recorded since 2010.
Bitcoin crashed 93% in 2011 and 84% in 2015. It later dropped 83% in 2018 before rebounding. In 2022, Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 and then recovered.
Stifel extended the rising support line to current levels. The projection now intersects near $38,000. That level implies a 43% decline from today’s price.
The firm does not confirm an imminent crash. However, it states that prior cycle stabilizers remain absent. Therefore, Bitcoin may lack strong structural support at current levels.
Bitcoin Tracks Tech Stocks as Correlation Climbs
Bitcoin now trades more in line with equities than currency hedges. Its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 stands at 0.78. As a result, Bitcoin often mirrors technology sector volatility.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell nearly 10% in 2025. It declined another 1% in early 2026. Yet Bitcoin moved lower instead of rising with a weaker dollar.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut rates modestly in December 2025. However, policymakers maintained restrictive guidance for the coming years. Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair reinforced expectations of tighter policy through 2027.
Global M2 money supply has also contracted. That trend reduces speculative capital across markets. Consequently, Bitcoin faces pressure from tightening liquidity conditions.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded $3.8 billion in outflows over five weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $2.1 billion of those withdrawals. These flows reflect weaker institutional demand during recent sessions.
Lawmakers also delayed the CLARITY Act in January. Coinbase withdrew support over stablecoin yield provisions. The stalled bill reduced regulatory clarity for digital assets.
Bitcoin Bulls Target New Highs Despite Risks
Despite bearish signals, several firms maintain optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin. JPMorgan models a $170,000 target within six to twelve months. The bank compares Bitcoin to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.
Analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou calculates Bitcoin trades below fair value relative to gold. He estimates a gap of roughly $68,000. However, he describes the exercise as mechanical rather than predictive.
Tom Lee at Fundstrat expects Bitcoin to reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by late 2026. He cites the April 2024 halving cycle. Historically, Bitcoin peaks 12 to 18 months after each halving.
Arthur Hayes also forecasts Bitcoin above $200,000. He points to reserve management purchases as indirect liquidity support. That view assumes continued monetary expansion despite official tightening signals.
Stifel identifies $54,000 as a breakdown level. A sustained move below that area could open $45,000, then $38,000. Conversely, a rally above $60,000 would weaken the bearish case.
