Bitcoin Signals “COVID-Era” Risk-Reward Setup Again, Says Bitwise Analyst

According to Bitwise Europe’s head of research, Bitcoin is now trading in conditions similar to those seen during the COVID-19 crash — a high-risk, high-reward environment. Analyst André Dragosch argues that after sharp sell-offs and heavy liquidations, many negative macroeconomic scenarios are already priced in, potentially setting the stage for a major rebound.

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Nov 29, 2025 - 16:55
Bitcoin Signals “COVID-Era” Risk-Reward Setup Again, Says Bitwise Analyst

Market Context

  • The current backdrop — with economic uncertainty, recession fears, and global growth pessimism — has some market watchers comparing it to March 2020, when Bitcoin fell from about US$8,000 to under US$5,000 before starting a multi-year bull run.
  • Dragosch suggests that BTC is “pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” implying that much of the bearish macro risk may already be discounted. 
  • If global liquidity and growth conditions begin to improve — similar to the post-COVID stimulus wave — Bitcoin could be well-positioned for upside. 

Key Points & Analyst View

  • Risk-reward asymmetry: Dragosch asserts that the current risk-reward profile for Bitcoin is among the most attractive since the COVID crash, giving investors “a lot of potential upside for relatively limited downside.” 
  • Macro conditions already priced in: According to the analyst, much of the negative economic outlook — including recession, rate tightening, and macro uncertainty — is already reflected in Bitcoin’s price, reducing the risk of further major downside. 
  • Potential catalyst of liquidity and growth rebound: Should global factors improve — e.g., loosening monetary policy, higher liquidity, economic growth — Bitcoin may benefit disproportionately, making this period attractive for long-term investors. 

What This Could Mean for Investors & Markets

  • Buying opportunity for long-term holders: For those with a multi-year horizon, Bitcoin may represent a compelling entry point — a chance to buy during a market-wide risk-off phase before a potential rebound.
  • Volatility likely stays high: Given macro uncertainty and sensitivity to global economic shifts, Bitcoin may continue to exhibit large price swings — offering both risk and opportunity.
  • Institutional interest might return: If macro conditions stabilize or liquidity improves, institutions may reenter the market, potentially triggering renewed demand and price support.
  • Bearish scenarios not off the table: While many risks are arguably priced in, unexpected shocks (e.g., economic collapse, aggressive central-bank policy) could still push markets lower; investors should remain vigilant.

Global Implications & Broader Significance

The current Bitcoin setup suggests that cryptocurrencies are again being treated as macro-sensitive risk assets — rather than purely speculative instruments. If conditions align (improved liquidity, economic recovery), Bitcoin could ride a wave similar to the post-COVID bull run, bringing fresh capital and renewed global interest in digital assets.

Conversely, this also underlines how vulnerable crypto remains to macroeconomic headwinds — reinforcing the importance for investors to consider global macro conditions when allocating to digital assets.

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